How To Predict A Cold

By Melody Short, LAc, Dipl. OM, MTCM.

Back when I was a wide eyed student in Chinese medical school, I used to think my teachers were magic.  They always knew what conditions were most likely going to be coming into the clinic at any given time of year.  They would predict chronic condition flair ups, acute contagious diseases, and even injuries to specific joint or muscle groups.  I was particularly astounded that a couple weeks ahead of time my teachers would know when the next cold would hit.  They would also know what the most likely first symptoms were going to be and how those symptoms would vary according to patient’s specific underlying patterns.  What could possibly account for the awesome premonitory powers of my superhuman teachers?  Five thousand years of the observation of natural phenomenon.

First and foremost we are observers in Chinese medicine.  If we can correctly see the pattern we can treat it. There is a saying in Chinese medicine: “A mediocre doctor treats a patient when they are already ill, a good doctor treats them in the early stage of illness, but an excellent doctor treats them before they are ill.”  It is not enough to just see the predominant seasonal patterns.  Nor is it enough to just see the constitutional patterns in our patients.  The art of Chinese medicine comes from seeing the relationship between them and how they interweave. 

After a decade of curiously watching the patterns, asking questions, and studying the shifts in qi, I am no longer the baffled novice.  Nor am I yet the master of observation that can proclaim such things as “We will be seeing a lot of toe problems this year, especially affecting the big toe,” as one of my teachers very accurately informed us many years ago.  I have however discovered, (partly due to the observation of my large percentage of pediatric patients), many keys in the prediction of colds.  I have selected the few that are most likely to be universally understood without delving too deeply into Chinese medical theory.

• Key number one: abrupt changes in weather have everything to do with colds.  Why? When there is a change in barometric pressure, change in temperature, change in humidity, or an increase in wind, there will be an increase in colds.   When the barometric pressure drops the body’s wei qi (aka immune defense) also drops letting in the germs it would normally be able to keep at bay.  When the temperature changes sharply down or up the body’s lag time in compensating can let in a chill or produce a symptom of latent heat such as sore throat or fever.  Likewise changes in humidity, (which go hand in hand with barometric changes) will affect phlegm production in a variety of ways.  As to wind, in Chinese medicine all colds have a wind component, it is the carrier, so more wind equals more colds.  Why is a topic for another time.

• Key number two: sweet foods, too much food, and party food make one more susceptible to colds.  Why?  In Chinese medicine we say that the digestive system is the parent of the respiratory and immune systems.  If we compromise our digestive system it has to put all its energy into repairing itself which means it can not support our respiratory and immune systems. 

• Key number three: when you mix groups of people, even when they are healthy, but especially when someone is sick, the potential for colds increases.  Why?  When we mix together with people outside of our daily germ pool we get exposed to things our immune system isn’t so familiar with and so it takes more energy to protect ourselves against it. The more varied ingredients in the germ cocktail the greater the stress on our immune systems thus more potential for colds.  A classic example is when a class of kids gets back together after mixing with each of their own extended families. They bring with them all the new and exciting germs to share with their fellow classmates, thereby creating an even more catchy classroom cocktail to bring back home.  Lucky teacher! (This is why I generally keep school teachers on a preventative formula throughout the school year).

• Key number four: stress and fatigue play a huge part in your ability to fight off colds.  Why?  Prolonged stress can ware down your immune system.  Additionally, the let down after prolonged stress can drop your immune system, which is why so many people come down with a cold when they finally have that week off to relax.  The more fatigued you are the lower your body’s protective qi (energy) will be.

• Start of School Cold (around Labor Day and following two weeks)
• Halloween Candy Hangover Cold
• Thanksgiving Food Stagnation Cold

• Winter Holiday Germ Mingling, Stressed Out Cold
• New Year Party-Til-You-Drop Cold (just in case the germ mingling one didn’t get ya!)
• Prelude to Spring Wind Cold (when the winds first kick up, approximately Chinese New Year)

• False Summer Fever (falls during or just after the “Yay, it’s sunny and warm, it must be spring!... Just kidding.” weather changes)
• Spring Break Vacation Germ Mingling Fever and Phlegm
• Am-I-Allergies or Am-I-a-Cold? Cold (very dependent on weather fluctuation and air pollen content)
• Late Spring Latent Heat Cold/Fever (winter heat stores transition out of the body)
• You Thought You Were Done With Cold Didn’t Ya? Cold (late June, post-school-year crash – also known as an immune let-down due to drastic change in stress levels)

• Summer Heat (though respiratory colds are few and far between we see bouts of stomach flu throughout the summer)

• Don’t let the cold catch you, use your powers of observation – when you notice a weather change; when you see those in your germ pool starting to catch colds; when large amounts of food, especially sweets (i.e. at a birthday party, etc.) are consumed; when you’ve been under a lot of stress or are fatigued, start treating the cold then. 

• Learn the specific pre-cold warning signs for your self and family.  These include such seemingly innocent things as grumpy moods, fatigue, low appetite, foggy headedness, and so on.  (I have one family with three children whose mother discovered that one child gets irritable and angry, one gets clingy and lovey-dovey, and one gets quiet and disinterested the day before they typically catch a cold.  She no longer waits for sniffles and sore throats.  Now she knocks the cold out with each child’s appropriate herbs before it can even start.  Their family now averages one minor cold per year instead of  constant relapsing colds from September to June).

• Learn which herbs, foods, and home-remedies are appropriate for your unique constitutional pattern and when professional treatment is needed - each person’s constitutional pattern is different and it is important to learn what is appropriate for you.

• Collaborate with your natural health provider – our role as self-care guides is just as important as our role as health care practitioners. 

It is common in my practice to see individuals and families who are coming to me acutely ill with a history of frequent colds.  As treatment and time progress, they learn to see their own patterns as well as their family’s patterns.  Treatments transition from frequent acute care to occasional maintenance visits.  Consequently phone calls go from panicked uncertainty regarding treatment of their colds, to calls self-confidently describing home-treatments successfully accomplished, but just wanting to be sure they haven’t forgotten anything to prevent relapse.  It is hard to read your body’s instruction manual if you are not yet fluent in your body’s language.  My goal is to help each of you master that art, starting with colds.

Melody sees patients full time at Elixia Wellness Group - call us to schedule!